It has warned that if the current situation in Sri Lanka is not immediately curtailed and curfews are imposed, there will be 220 deaths per day and 6,000 cases per day in Sri Lanka by the middle of next month.
Also, a report on the current status of COVID-19 and future steps was confirmed at the 5th meeting of the World Health Organization (WHO) meeting yesterday, which estimated that about 18,000 people would die from cochlear implants by January next year.
This forecast is based on the assumption that 50% will be fully vaccinated by the end of this month.
Accordingly, if the current level of travel restrictions continues, the number of COVID infections a day will rise to 6,000 by mid-September. By early October, COVID deaths will rise to about 220 a day. About 275 people will be admitted to the intensive care units in early October. By January 2022, the total number of COVID deaths in the country will be around 30,000. But that model assumes that it is the lowest possible estimate, as we have not yet received the required vaccine coverage.
If travel restrictions are increased upto 4 weeks (as it was from May to June 2021) by October 2021, the number of infections per day will be less than 1,000, the number of deaths per day will be less than 25 and the number of infected people treated in the intensive care unit will be less than 25 per day. According to the report, 18,000 deaths could be prevented by January 2022.
Accordingly, the following recommendations have been made to prevent the situation.
• Tightening travel restrictions by imposing district travel restrictions instead of provincial travel restrictions.
• Imposition of curfew for a short period of time.
• Prohibition of all public festivals for 3 weeks.
• Prevention of public gatherings/ public meetings.
• Provide care and protection for health workers to minimize disruptions to essential health services and increase hospital staffing.
• Updating the public, implementing effective communication programs, educating the public, providing accurate information on infections and deaths.
• By giving priority to vaccinations for those over 60 years of age and sick.
WHO Sri Lanka Office predicted the future status of reported infections and deaths with the participation of Specialist Physicians, in collaboration with Monash University, Australia, WHO SEAR and using the data of Sri Lanka Health officials & epidemiology unit.
About 50 WHO and Sri Lankan medical experts have participated in the preparation of this report. Specialists Dr. Palitha Abeykoon, Nihal Abeysinghe, Rajiv de Silva, Lakkumari Fernando, Padma Gunaratne, Ananda Wijewickrama are among the specialists. Professors have also been involved in the preparation of this chart.
