The Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington, has predicted the incidence of Covid deaths and infections in Sri Lanka in the next four months, based on data from the current Covid epidemic situation in Sri Lanka.
The agency made this prediction using Covid data based on the current global situation.
The agency predicts that the overall death toll in the country will be at an all-time high by September 21. They also point out that the total number of COVID-19 deaths in Sri Lanka will be 20,876 by September 1, 2021, depending on the current state of the Covid epidemic in Sri Lanka.
IHME researchers say there is usually a delay of 17-21 days between infection and death. However, they believe that the best indicator of the progress of the epidemic is daily death toll. The agency says the daily death toll in the country will rise unexpectedly by June 27 and will drop slightly by September. However, according to the available data, the daily death toll in Sri Lanka will be 224 by June 27, and if it gets to its worst, at least 358 Covid deaths a day could be reported.
The institute states that by June 14, covid patients in Sri Lankan hospitals will be in dire need of facilities. The institute says that 17023 beds will be required for covid patients and by that time there will be 20769 beds in the country. The institute also predicts that 3445 intensive care unit beds will be required for covid patients and that there will be only 295 intensive care unit beds in the country.
IHME estimates that the number of people infected with COVID-19 every day in the country is estimated to be infected with COVID-19, including those who have not been tested. Accordingly, the number of daily reported cases and tests conducted in the country will increase by June 20 and thereafter it will gradually decrease, the institute said. Accordingly, the number of infections and tests that could be reported daily in the country by the 20th of June will be 46772 and in the worst case scenario it will be around 85896.
The agency’s forecast for the use of masks in Sri Lanka is based on the percentage of the population who say they wear masks regularly in public. The use of masks reduces the transmission of the covid virus by 30% or more. By September 1, the use of masks in Sri Lanka will be 95%, but their data show a gradual decreaae.
It is also predicted that the social distance in the country will be reduced by 43% by June 27.
According to the agency, the excess mortality rate in the current epidemic is not the same as the current COVID-19 mortality rate in any country. There are six factors that contribute to the death toll from the epidemic and the epidemic.
These six points are:
A) Total COVID-19 mortality rate, i.e. all deaths directly related to COVID-19 infection;
(B) The increase in the number of deaths due to postponing or delays in the provision of necessary health services during the epidemic;
(C) Increased mortality due to mental health disorders, including depression and increased alcohol use;
(D) The reduction in the number of deaths due to the average decrease in mobility associated with social distance;
(E) Decreased transmission of other viruses, especially influenza, respiratory related virus and measles;
(F) A reduction in the number of deaths due to certain chronic conditions such as heart disease and chronic respiratory diseases;
The researchers said that in order to accurately estimate the overall COVID-19 mortality rate, these six factors that contributed to the change in mortality from the onset of the epidemic must be taken into account.
